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Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Numbers for Thursday price changes

Hello to everyone,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:
Heating and stove oils expected to rise by 1.25 cents a litre.
Diesel expected to rise by 9/10ths of a cent, and...
Gasoline shows an added 3.4 cents a litre.


*Note that I believe it is this Thursday where the winter blend for heating and Diesel fuels comes into effect, so the numbers for those fuels may be slightly off as a result of the new blend. Use those numbers as a rough indicator only.

The markets were a little choppy this last period with everything from sell-offs of oil interests to refinery shut-downs in the US northeast and eastern Canada. That's why we're looking at a sharp jump in gasoline prices this week, along with some of the distillate fuels. That, and the other downside factor of the strength in the US dollar. Because there's such insecurity over world markets still, and slow worldwide economic recovery (if any) outside the US, their dollar has been gaining an awful lot of strength against the Canuck Buck. We've lost 1.2 cents against the US dollar just this last week!

On the positive end, I don't expect those prices to stick for next week. Already, the markets are starting to take notice of an impending glut in the worldwide markets and that has sent all crude oil prices to the downside that consumers should start to notice shortly.

The sharp increase to Libyan production this last week, all in spite of some unrest there has sent Brent prices down. Speculators, especially those selling hedge funds into those markets, have been pulling out from their long positions now that the writing is on the wall as regards to an abundance of crude out there. US domestic production has hit another record with the EIA estimating overall US numbers hitting close on 8.9 million barrels a day.

I'll leave it at that, but right now, speculators are now betting on lower oil!

Feel free to share this!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Price changes for Thursday, September 25, 2014

Hello everyone,

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show a drop of 1.18 cents a litre.
Diesel fuel is expected to drop by 1.6 cents a litre,and...
Gasoline showing a small increase of 8/10ths of a cent a litre.


The amazing strength of the US dollar has probably come about as the result of the weakness of the overall world economy. With consumer demand remaining "lackluster", it would be good reason for investors to start placing their faith in the strongest of currencies.

Until such a time as any signs of world economic activity picking up, expect commodities like oil and gold to continue to show weakness.

How long can that be expected remains a question in itself though, and perhaps a topic I'll pick up on another time!

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA 

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Price changes for Thursday, September 18, 2014

Hello everyone;

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils expected to drop by 1.48 cents a litre.
Diesel to drop by 1.5 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline to drop by 2.2 cents a litre.


Crude oil rose for the first time in two weeks as OPEC's secretary Abdulla El-Badri speculated that producers within the organization may institute production cuts at its next meeting in Vienna in November. The Saudi Arabian oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi however said just last week that there was no need for any production cut as he expects oil demand to pick up later this fall as demand for heating oil picks up to meet expected colder weather.

Other than that this week, a cut to world oil demand was expected in the next year by the International Energy Agency. No doubt, consumers are still upset with elevated prices and demand for fuels such as gasoline and distillates remains flat. Huge numbers in increases in US domestic production will continue to influence oil prices ahead of what OPEC may do. In spite of OPEC's talk about a possible production cut, I don't expect to see an increase anytime soon to all fuels as a result of the availability of oil product.

That's it for this week! Feel free to pass this note around!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Numbers for Thursday, September 11, 2014



Hi to all,

Here’s what I have for this Thursday’s price changes…

Nothing major this week, next to the fact that Brent crude is slipping further due to lower China manufacturing numbers and a not-so-steady ceasefire in the Ukraine. Lower than expected growth numbers in GDP amongst European Union countries also has the European markets worried over another dip into another Eurozone crisis.

Heating and stove oils can expect a 7/10ths of a cent a litre drop.
Diesel fuel shows a drop of just a half penny, and…
Gasoline shows an added 3/10ths of a cent a litre.

Margin for error +/-3/10ths of a cent.

The Canadian dollar also finished slightly lower against the US greenback, finishing this pricing session at $1.1012 against its southern neighbor. Inventories there last week reported a drop of 900K barrels of crude oil and 2.3 million barrels of gasoline due to a turnaround of refinery runs to distillate fuels.

Distillate fuels that include heating, stove oils and diesel showed an increase of just 600K barrels.

In case you’re all still following the Muskrat issue, here’s an interesting one from the EIA that speaks about over 4300 megawatts of added electricity capacity to the grid recently. That’s in the first half of 2014…

That’s it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Price changes for Thursday, August 28, 2014

Here's what I have for this Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils down by just 2/100ths of a cent.
Diesel to drop by just 1/10th of a cent a litre, and...
Gasoline to increase by 2.5 cents a litre.

While oil prices were holding somewhat steady, they did increase slightly for West Texas Intermediate crude. What I did notice was a decrease in gasoline inventories last week which may have influenced the upward move of gasoline immediately before the Labour Day weekend.

See you all next week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Price changes for Thursday, August 21, 2014

Greetings from St. George's-Stephenville East where I'm out here working!

Here's what I have for Thursday's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show down by 1.38 cents a litre....
Diesel is also forecast to drop by 1.5 cents a litre, and...
Gasoline is forecast to drop by 1.4 cents a litre.


Oil started to take another tumble with the news that the Kurds have again taken the Mosul Dam area off the ISIS forces in the area, lessening the threat to some more of Iraq's oilfields. That sent Brent and WTI prices lower, but kept the Canadian dollar down along with it against the US greenback...

Sure would love to see a build in inventories again tomorrow. It will help to keep the downwards pressure on oil if it were to show consumers were still not driving demand of gasoline or heating fuels!

That's it from this side!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA
 

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Price changes for Thursday, August 14, 2014

Sorry for any inconvenience last week. I was out of town and couldn't post the numbers! I hope you all got them from my Twitter feed in spite of!

With all data in, here's what I have for this week's price changes:

Heating and stove oils show an added 55/100ths of a cent a litre.
Diesel fuel adds 6/10ths of a cent a litre, and...
Gasoline adds just 7/10ths of a cent a litre.

Again this week, the Canadian dollar lost about a half cent against the US greenback. The Markets remain relatively steady in spite of word of further US involvement in Iraq. Most of the market pressures off Middle East influences can be directly attributed to the fact that US domestic supply has become an important player in determining the "off-influence" prices we're seeing today.

Simple fact is that, while there is trouble in the Middle East, supplies are secure in North America as a result of the growth in US domestic production.

Security of supply...

That's it for this week!

Regards,

George Murphy
Twitter @GeorgeMurphyMHA